{ "schema_version": 1, "case_study": "polygon-block-time-polymarket-preconfirmation", "audit_date": "2026-08-04", "status": "published", "audited_at": "2026-08-04T05:20:53Z", "headline_claim": { "polygon_average_block_interval_before_sec": 2.0, "polygon_average_block_interval_after_sec": 1.5, "interval_reduction_pct": 25.0, "block_opportunity_increase_pct": 33.3333333333, "polynode_median_lead_before_sec": 3.08, "polynode_median_lead_after_sec": 2.28, "polynode_median_lead_before_blocks": 1.54, "polynode_median_lead_after_blocks": 1.52, "interpretation": "Wall-clock lead compressed with Polygon block cadence while block-relative position remained essentially unchanged." }, "latency_measurements": [ { "date": "2026-04-14", "method": "public detected_at minus canonical block header timestamp", "samples": 602, "polygon_cadence_sec": 2.0, "p50_lead_sec": 3.08, "p90_lead_sec": 3.95, "p50_lead_blocks": 1.54, "p90_lead_blocks": 1.975 }, { "date": "2026-07-06", "method": "public detected_at minus canonical block header timestamp", "samples": 3770, "polygon_cadence_sec": 1.5, "p50_lead_sec": 2.28, "p90_lead_sec": 2.96, "p50_lead_blocks": 1.52, "p90_lead_blocks": 1.9733333333 }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "method": "observation from PolyNode's own Polygon node minus canonical block header timestamp", "samples": 4780, "polygon_cadence_sec": 1.5, "p50_lead_sec": 2.136956, "p90_lead_sec": 2.86621, "p99_lead_sec": 3.369717, "p50_lead_blocks": 1.4246373333, "p90_lead_blocks": 1.9108066667, "control_only": true } ], "cadence_scaled_prediction": { "scale_factor": 0.75, "predicted_p50_sec": 2.31, "observed_p50_sec": 2.28, "absolute_p50_error_sec": 0.03, "predicted_p90_sec": 2.9625, "observed_p90_sec": 2.96, "absolute_p90_error_sec": 0.0025 }, "current_websocket_corroboration": [ { "date": "2026-08-01", "measurement": "PolyNode pending callback to PolyNode status_update callback", "samples": 18041, "median_sec": 2.148, "p95_sec": 3.189 }, { "date": "2026-08-04", "measurement": "PolyNode pending callback to PolyNode status_update callback", "samples": 18122, "median_sec": 2.215, "p95_sec": 3.332 } ], "block_header_samples": [ { "dates": ["2026-03-26", "2026-04-14", "2026-04-24"], "consecutive_headers_per_date": "500-1000", "mean_interval_sec": 2.0, "integer_gap_distribution": {"1_sec_pct": 0, "2_sec_pct": 100} }, { "dates": ["2026-05-15", "2026-06-01"], "consecutive_headers_per_date": "500-1000", "mean_interval_sec": 1.75, "integer_gap_distribution": {"1_sec_pct": 25, "2_sec_pct": 75} }, { "dates": ["2026-06-18", "2026-07-06"], "consecutive_headers_per_date": "500-1000", "mean_interval_sec": 1.5, "integer_gap_distribution": {"1_sec_pct": 50, "2_sec_pct": 50} } ], "throughput_snapshots": [ { "requested_window_utc": {"start": "2026-04-14T01:10:04.000Z", "end": "2026-04-14T01:25:04.000Z", "duration_sec": 900}, "contract_era": "polymarket_v1", "block_window": {"from": 85504484, "to": 85504933, "count": 450, "from_hash": "0x9bd87773f7f3695f7ba3e560c361c1b87aaf7c61b940f84a824fb4d1e36caae0", "to_hash": "0x12bb5594d3ecd8bb65aa04032dc7afa7aea6ff2cb067eb00f19f7e4b58728b6a", "mean_header_gap_sec": 2.0}, "polygon": {"transactions": 109573, "transactions_per_sec": 121.7477777778}, "polymarket": {"settlement_transactions": 34927, "order_filled_logs": 100144, "settlement_transactions_per_sec": 38.8077777778, "fills_per_sec": 111.2711111111} }, { "requested_window_utc": {"start": "2026-04-14T12:30:08.000Z", "end": "2026-04-14T12:45:08.000Z", "duration_sec": 900}, "contract_era": "polymarket_v1", "block_window": {"from": 85524886, "to": 85525335, "count": 450, "from_hash": "0x5b968633f519104c46fe0458f15d84538fe6da33b0aa756ec59e6c2e6b7328eb", "to_hash": "0x7d3d70574255f915e2dfed15244ca4fbd98a695a7d329cbad0549221277a1fd9", "mean_header_gap_sec": 2.0}, "polygon": {"transactions": 129603, "transactions_per_sec": 144.0033333333}, "polymarket": {"settlement_transactions": 39119, "order_filled_logs": 107060, "settlement_transactions_per_sec": 43.4655555556, "fills_per_sec": 118.9555555556} }, { "requested_window_utc": {"start": "2026-08-01T12:30:08.000Z", "end": "2026-08-01T12:45:08.000Z", "duration_sec": 900}, "contract_era": "polymarket_v2", "block_window": {"from": 91254925, "to": 91255524, "count": 600, "from_hash": "0x8247bc226897b906c70cc763447ffa57cedb19494918c9f3198c9585fe658993", "to_hash": "0x6c6430ba8787382151e0d16c8ace6268f204d70d98e94a3ad719c713dfe09a67", "mean_header_gap_sec": 1.4991652755}, "polygon": {"transactions": 58214, "transactions_per_sec": 64.6822222222}, "polymarket": {"settlement_transactions": 18127, "order_filled_logs": 48503, "settlement_transactions_per_sec": 20.1411111111, "fills_per_sec": 53.8922222222} }, { "requested_window_utc": {"start": "2026-08-04T01:10:04.000Z", "end": "2026-08-04T01:25:04.000Z", "duration_sec": 900}, "contract_era": "polymarket_v2", "block_window": {"from": 91400519, "to": 91401118, "count": 600, "from_hash": "0x0e385e2e4f24e29e1422a370d3d81208a1f7bc0fe068f1675008a53a5b379948", "to_hash": "0x72b742a4d9c50a92dc63277ff4dd9c116bcc262b5d40599922605c8d2dbe0d82", "mean_header_gap_sec": 1.4991652755}, "polygon": {"transactions": 64087, "transactions_per_sec": 71.2077777778}, "polymarket": {"settlement_transactions": 18276, "order_filled_logs": 51345, "settlement_transactions_per_sec": 20.3066666667, "fills_per_sec": 57.05} } ], "two_window_snapshot_averages": { "april_v1": {"polygon_transactions_per_sec": 132.8755555556, "polymarket_settlement_transactions_per_sec": 41.1366666667, "polymarket_fills_per_sec": 115.1133333333}, "august_v2": {"polygon_transactions_per_sec": 67.945, "polymarket_settlement_transactions_per_sec": 20.2238888889, "polymarket_fills_per_sec": 55.4711111111} }, "public_prior_work_audit": { "searched_on": "2026-08-04", "result": "No full two-stage, block-normalized before-and-after study was located; public search is not a complete denominator." }, "official_sources": [ "https://forum.polygon.technology/t/pip-75-change-consensus-time-to-1-second/21376", "https://forum.polygon.technology/t/pip-86-recalibrate-checkpoint-reward-for-reduced-polygon-block-times/21864", "https://polygon.technology/blog/polygon-speeds-up-by-33-with-madhugiri-hardfork", "https://x.com/0xPolygon/status/2052120167736389721", "https://x.com/0xPolygon/status/2062240408030310525", "https://polygon.technology/blog/polygon-chain-now-supports-5000-payments-per-second-hitting-the-speed-of-a-card-network-at-a-fraction-of-the-cost", "https://polygon.technology/blog/a-billion-fans-five-weeks-one-network-we-spent-six-months-preparing-polygon-chain-for-the-summers-biggest-sporting-event", "https://docs.polymarket.com/concepts/order-lifecycle", "https://help.polymarket.com/en/articles/14762452-polymarket-exchange-upgrade-april-28-2026" ], "limitations": [ "Pending-to-inclusion latency excludes pending transactions that never land onchain.", "Polygon block headers have integer-second timestamps and detections use a separate host clock.", "The April and July rows are retained aggregate measurements; raw August arrivals are retained internally.", "The traffic comparison contains four 15-minute snapshots across different Polymarket contract eras, not daily averages.", "The evidence does not show that shorter blocks caused volume changes, fewer failed settlements, or fewer attacks.", "Polygon's published payments-per-second figure is capacity, not sustained observed traffic." ], "source_sha256": { "internal_investigation_report": "e305f33b8805f71b24da68ab64f7bd2271ecd7c70c335d0c019cbe9c1a56d002", "claim_evidence_matrix": "9e5046bf788ff140f5d2a2c5b4f2aa51624b98880558f444f09ee7c0786e75ec", "throughput_measurement_script": "3b3bd9e53d423a7b565577655388c441d19bb537abaded4226c60658b87a6cb7" }, "historical_provenance": [ { "recorded_at": "2026-04-14T05:51:58Z", "record_type": "retained benchmark session summary", "reported_result": "n=602, median 3.08 seconds, p90 3.95 seconds versus canonical Polygon block timestamp", "original_temporary_collection_script_retained": false }, { "recorded_at": "2026-07-06T11:46:26Z", "record_type": "retained three-minute public WebSocket capture result", "pending_events": 3873, "status_update_events": 3820, "matched_pairs": 3770, "status_without_prior_pending": 50, "embedded_lead_ms": {"p10": 1575, "p50": 2283, "p90": 2958, "p99": 3378, "min": 823, "max": 3649, "negative_count": 0}, "original_temporary_collection_script_retained": false } ] }